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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and longtime underperformers rising collectively. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still