A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
